A month or more after the UAE seized the cargo of the 'ANL Australia', flying the flag of the Bahamas, the story found its way into the global press. The vessel had in its hold weapons destined for Iran, and North Korean in origin. Yet, the lading of the grenade launchers and other materiel came from an Italian shipper with an office in Shanghai. As Guam Dairy previously reported, armed with UN resolution 1874 which allows the seizure of North Korean vessels and cargo, we wonder whether the removal of the arms bought and paid for by Iran ['The Financial Times of London's' article which first alerted us to this story, spoke of a UN diplomat whose country sits on the sanctions committee who alleges that the TSS or Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps had ordered the seized shipment. Iran, too, falls under UN sanctions. So, here, we find a double whammy, a 'coup de theatre' which thwarted Pyongyang's commerce, and stymies additions to Iran's arsenals.]
And yet the leaked story, which could not but have a US source, has hardly raised a hue and a cry from the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea].
Is a story that will make long fire, the more especially since the charm offensives initiated by the US, the DPRK, and the ROC [Republic of Korea aka South Korea] are on the upswing? Or, as certain hard line circles ardently desire in Washington, will the UAE confiscation of the 'ANL Australia' derail the ongoing relaxation of tensions among the 3 countries?
Curiously, Guam Diary raises the question of legality. Since the exporter is an Italian national,it would seem that the sanctions nor the seizure apply, theoretically. But the destination is Iran so they would, but oddly enough UAE now holds the weapons of North Korean manufacture, but it does not know what to do with them. It has appealed to the UN sanctions committee for advice and further action. The ship has gone on its way.
Furthermore, the origin of the transaction occurred before Citizen Clinton's mission of mercy to the DPRK, so the leak has had to come from the intelligence community, mostly likely from American sources; South Korea shouldn't be ruled out. So the story told has many loose ends. Let's see if the incident is but a hiccup, or it has a longer tale.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Mad cow hysteria in Malayasia
The latest outbreak of religious madness in Malayasia occurred when Malay residents protested the relocaation of Hindu temple in their neighbourhood even though it is 200 metres from anyone's house. To pour oil on the fires of racial and religious intolerance, they brought a cow head to trample outside the temple. No Malayasian leader nor prominent citizen or religious figure protested nor criticised the trampling of an animal which is sacred to Hinduism, thereby allowing these zealots much leave to commit more mayhem and rioting.
Malayasia allows a neighbourhood when it has a Malay [read Muslim] majority, any other religious institutions in its geographical boundaries, has to move elsewhere. Over the years, churches and Hindu temples or pagodas had to be rebuilt elsewhere since the custom and law forced them to remove to other neighbourhoods.
The irony in the case above, is that the temple moved to this new location for that very reason.
Recently the religious extremist's hand had to be stayed. It had sentenced a young Malay woman to be whipped for drinking beer. The ulemas forbade Malays from going to the Black Eyed Peas concert in Kuala Lumpur, not for woman bearing more flesh than these pious men would deem permissible but for who was sponsoring the musicale soiree. Guiness the Anglo Irish beer conglomerate!
Malayasia practises apartheid. It is based on race and religion. Malays have full rights, Chinese and Indians and Eurasians have little, and suffer from economic and social inequalities.
Malayasia is a showcase of zealotry over the years. Its roots can be traced to the student movement that the now reformer Anwar Ibrahim encouraged more than a generation ago, and to the xenophobic tack that long ruling prime minister Mahatir Mohammed inspired. The roots go even further, the Malay led riots against the Chinese in 1969, and before that the cynical use of racial division by the British colonial rulers. \
Malayasia allows a neighbourhood when it has a Malay [read Muslim] majority, any other religious institutions in its geographical boundaries, has to move elsewhere. Over the years, churches and Hindu temples or pagodas had to be rebuilt elsewhere since the custom and law forced them to remove to other neighbourhoods.
The irony in the case above, is that the temple moved to this new location for that very reason.
Recently the religious extremist's hand had to be stayed. It had sentenced a young Malay woman to be whipped for drinking beer. The ulemas forbade Malays from going to the Black Eyed Peas concert in Kuala Lumpur, not for woman bearing more flesh than these pious men would deem permissible but for who was sponsoring the musicale soiree. Guiness the Anglo Irish beer conglomerate!
Malayasia practises apartheid. It is based on race and religion. Malays have full rights, Chinese and Indians and Eurasians have little, and suffer from economic and social inequalities.
Malayasia is a showcase of zealotry over the years. Its roots can be traced to the student movement that the now reformer Anwar Ibrahim encouraged more than a generation ago, and to the xenophobic tack that long ruling prime minister Mahatir Mohammed inspired. The roots go even further, the Malay led riots against the Chinese in 1969, and before that the cynical use of racial division by the British colonial rulers. \
Saturday, August 29, 2009
UN resolution 1874, sanctions, North Korea, & the United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirate [UAE] has seized, the BBC announced, a ship carrying 10 containers of weapons and related items, including rocket launchers, grenades, and ammunition that the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea] was sending to the Islamic Republic of Iran.Unlike the Bush administration's seizure of Scud missiles destined for Yemen in 1992, the US government had to send the ship on its way to Aden. The reason is simple enough, under the Law of the Seas, president George Bush had no binding international right under law, to confiscate the missiles, since Yemen had bought the missiles and expected contractually their dockside delivery. The UAE was armed with UN resolution 1874, which gave it the right to seize through international authority the DPRK arms which Iran had duly paid for. Guam Diary has yet to discover under which flag the vessel was sailing, nor the exact spot at which the UAE authorities boarded it, assuming that it was in UAE territorial waters. And for that matter who alerted them that the ship had weapons and the like. The Emirates authority clothed in the provisions of UN resolution 1874, took appropriate steps. UAE is at that point in which can and does keep track of shipments to and from Iran. The US has kept the pressure on the emirates to monitor and keep track of Iran's foreign trade and by extension the value of provisions declared for Iranian ports as well as the value of goods shipped from Iran abroad.
In spite of the softening of tensions between Washington and Pyongyang, the Obama [BHO] administration has shown no willingness to show a similar policy towards Tehran. How the confiscation of 10 containers of weaponry will play in BHO's new tack towards Kim Jong il, only time will tell. The US sanctions enforcer the State Department's Philip Goldberg is spreading his wings in Asia to pressure reluctant government to enforce the UN resolution on sanctions. Guam Diary knows of only two cases: one, India's seizure of 16,500 ton[n]es of sugar destined for the Persian Gulf, on the DPRK vessel 'MV Mu San' and the other, the UAE weapons haul.
Sanctions have a limited appeal since in trade, two or more parties are involved. And it is worth the risk to defy sanctions as they inhibit commerce and the ebb and flow of capital and profits.
Some countries like Singapore simply turn a blind eye. And the city state is not alone.
The UAE tour de force will add another layer of complexity to the shadow play of DPRK and US talks. Washington, lest we forget, is not always playing with a strong hand, and as the record clearly shows, that even when it does, it is less than a skillful player. Is the seizure of a shipment of weapons from the DPRK to Iran a Pyrrhic victory?
In spite of the softening of tensions between Washington and Pyongyang, the Obama [BHO] administration has shown no willingness to show a similar policy towards Tehran. How the confiscation of 10 containers of weaponry will play in BHO's new tack towards Kim Jong il, only time will tell. The US sanctions enforcer the State Department's Philip Goldberg is spreading his wings in Asia to pressure reluctant government to enforce the UN resolution on sanctions. Guam Diary knows of only two cases: one, India's seizure of 16,500 ton[n]es of sugar destined for the Persian Gulf, on the DPRK vessel 'MV Mu San' and the other, the UAE weapons haul.
Sanctions have a limited appeal since in trade, two or more parties are involved. And it is worth the risk to defy sanctions as they inhibit commerce and the ebb and flow of capital and profits.
Some countries like Singapore simply turn a blind eye. And the city state is not alone.
The UAE tour de force will add another layer of complexity to the shadow play of DPRK and US talks. Washington, lest we forget, is not always playing with a strong hand, and as the record clearly shows, that even when it does, it is less than a skillful player. Is the seizure of a shipment of weapons from the DPRK to Iran a Pyrrhic victory?
Peripatetic Bill Richardson
After hosting two senior DRPK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea] at the governor's manision in Santa Fe, Bill Richardson suddenly appears to have gone on a trouble shooting assignment for the Obama [BHO] White House, to Havana Cuba.
The peripatetic governor has no 'authority' to negotiate on behalf of Mr. Obama, but the object all sublime of his talks has very much to do with BHO's strategy 'in voce sotto', and through 'private channels' to jump start and advance negotiations with the DPRK and Cuba, whilst at the same time speaking in a public hard line voice.
The White House in each case cannot without raising the monster of critics venture openly with softening America's going nowhere policy with the two countries. And so with a pinch of salt tack, it is preparing the way by donning a fig leap of 'privacy' in order to await the right moment that it can conduct diplomacy with a winning hand. And trouble shooter Bill Richardson has proven a useful hand. It is equally telling that the US president is deploying loyal team players from the Clinton White House.
The peripatetic governor has no 'authority' to negotiate on behalf of Mr. Obama, but the object all sublime of his talks has very much to do with BHO's strategy 'in voce sotto', and through 'private channels' to jump start and advance negotiations with the DPRK and Cuba, whilst at the same time speaking in a public hard line voice.
The White House in each case cannot without raising the monster of critics venture openly with softening America's going nowhere policy with the two countries. And so with a pinch of salt tack, it is preparing the way by donning a fig leap of 'privacy' in order to await the right moment that it can conduct diplomacy with a winning hand. And trouble shooter Bill Richardson has proven a useful hand. It is equally telling that the US president is deploying loyal team players from the Clinton White House.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Taiwan invites the Dalai Lama! Beijing gets a taste of its own medicine!
When Ma Ying jeou became president of Taiwan, thereby bringing once more back into power the KMT, he made it a point to bring the island republic closer into mainland China's orbit. Beijing received him with much fanfare; travel restrictions between the two Chinas dropped; and trade turned more brisk.
Mother Nature in her dark form of heavy rains and mudslides which destroyed many Taiwanese villages and buried alive thousands, has put a spin of Ma's rapproachement with the mainland regime. Like the US president George W. Bush and his 'benign neglect' in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Mr. Ma's response to the destruction and loss of life and need of homeless survivors of the rains and the mudslide, was an echo of Mr. Bush's callousness to the plight of his own people.
Ma's poll numbers dropped so fast that as an act of utter frantic panic, he invited the Dalai Lama to come to Taiwan, to pray for the souls of those perished under the mud and in the torrents of rains, as well as offering the much needed solace of a revered religious figure, which the KMT in its neglect of duty, had forfeited in the eyes of Taiwanese.
Everyone in the world is not unaware of Beijing's utter contempt and hatred of the Dalai Lama, and what he represents to the Tibetans inside China who suffer under the harsh yoke of Han rule, and on whom it excoriates in feverish diatribes as a 'splittist' wanting to rend asunder mainland China; as a relic of the dark night of religious obscurantism because the Dalai Lama is a symbol of resistance to a corrupt Communist ruling class, amotng scores of other ills of China's own making that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wishes to pin on him.
Ma's invitation does not require years of training as a shaman, a reader of cattle bones. He committed a major faux pas which risks to send him and the KMT back into the night of political exile. So, the curry the favour of the 'vox populi', he extended the hand of welcome and friendship to Dalai Lama.
Curiously enough, his calculated move to remain in office has two interesting effects. One, he has shown a side of independence from mainland China's assertion that Taiwan is a rogue or runaway province. His invitation is clearly the privilege and the right of a head of state. Secondly, southern Taiwan was the most heavily hit by the typhoon rains and the mudslides that followed. Now, it is precisely in Taiwan's south that the KMT's opposition, which it triumphed over at the last elections, is strong in numbers and influence and in its call for the declaration of Taiwanese independence. Ma's Machiavellian move has at one and the same time, put a chill in his opening towards the mainland, and what's more strengthened the hand of his opponents, who if the Dalai Lama comes, will roll the yellow carpet!
Is mainland China chastened by the 'dialectical' nature of politics? Hardly, it may seem. Mention Tibet and the Dalai Lama, and the rulers in Beijing go ballistic!
Mother Nature in her dark form of heavy rains and mudslides which destroyed many Taiwanese villages and buried alive thousands, has put a spin of Ma's rapproachement with the mainland regime. Like the US president George W. Bush and his 'benign neglect' in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Mr. Ma's response to the destruction and loss of life and need of homeless survivors of the rains and the mudslide, was an echo of Mr. Bush's callousness to the plight of his own people.
Ma's poll numbers dropped so fast that as an act of utter frantic panic, he invited the Dalai Lama to come to Taiwan, to pray for the souls of those perished under the mud and in the torrents of rains, as well as offering the much needed solace of a revered religious figure, which the KMT in its neglect of duty, had forfeited in the eyes of Taiwanese.
Everyone in the world is not unaware of Beijing's utter contempt and hatred of the Dalai Lama, and what he represents to the Tibetans inside China who suffer under the harsh yoke of Han rule, and on whom it excoriates in feverish diatribes as a 'splittist' wanting to rend asunder mainland China; as a relic of the dark night of religious obscurantism because the Dalai Lama is a symbol of resistance to a corrupt Communist ruling class, amotng scores of other ills of China's own making that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wishes to pin on him.
Ma's invitation does not require years of training as a shaman, a reader of cattle bones. He committed a major faux pas which risks to send him and the KMT back into the night of political exile. So, the curry the favour of the 'vox populi', he extended the hand of welcome and friendship to Dalai Lama.
Curiously enough, his calculated move to remain in office has two interesting effects. One, he has shown a side of independence from mainland China's assertion that Taiwan is a rogue or runaway province. His invitation is clearly the privilege and the right of a head of state. Secondly, southern Taiwan was the most heavily hit by the typhoon rains and the mudslides that followed. Now, it is precisely in Taiwan's south that the KMT's opposition, which it triumphed over at the last elections, is strong in numbers and influence and in its call for the declaration of Taiwanese independence. Ma's Machiavellian move has at one and the same time, put a chill in his opening towards the mainland, and what's more strengthened the hand of his opponents, who if the Dalai Lama comes, will roll the yellow carpet!
Is mainland China chastened by the 'dialectical' nature of politics? Hardly, it may seem. Mention Tibet and the Dalai Lama, and the rulers in Beijing go ballistic!
North Korea, Burma, Russia & nuclear technology
Guam Diary alerted its readers in early July of the wild goose chase the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea] vessel 'Kang Nam 1' sent the USS John McCain merrily on, inn Washington's determined effort to enforce a sanctions provision of UN resolution 1854. Pyongyang never gave Washington the chance to board its ship either in a third party port or stop it on the high seas. At the time of this merry go round sailing in the South China Sea and the Pacific, the Obama [BHO] administration cranked up its propaganda machinery full force, by blaring out its message that one, the 'Kang Nam 1' was steaming for Burma, and two, in its hold, it had taken on a cargo consisting of nuclear technology, destined for the detested and detestable Burmese military junta.
Since the USS John McCain couldn't fulfill its mission, BHO's alert remains at best speculation, and at worst a total fabrication. No one will ever know. Or will he?
Now, with a carefully planned visit of Virginia's senator Jim Webb to Myanmar, in a change of Washington's tack towards Yangon , the truth has slowly seen the light of public scrutiny and belies somewhat Washington's war of words towards the DPRK.
BHO is engaged in a kiss and awkwardly making up with Pyongyang and Yangon. And here's where a small kitchen has been let out of the bag. The honourable Mr. Webb is n o stranger to Burma, nor a trumpeter of sanctions against the Burmese generals. Further more in an op ed piece in the reputable 'New York Times Online', he put tin black and what that 'Russia is assisting the Myanmar government on a nuclear project'. Now that is indeed a break through!
The good senator from the state of Virginia in 11 words, shone the spot light on Moscow's role in developing nuclear technology in Myanmar. He says nothing about North Korea. Which makes Guam Diary wonder aloud that the Obama administration drum beating on that rogue capitol Pyongyang is the spoiler in spreading nuclear technology abroad and to pariah regimes [read, aiding other states to arm themselves with nuclear weapons], turns out to be unsubstantiated noise. The US is first to admit that its knowledge of the DPRK is weak, and so it more oft than not, advances unsubstantiated claims or repeats the war messages emanating from the ROC [Republic of Korea aka South Korea].
Well it turns out that Moscow not Pyongyang is in the business of spreading nuclear technology in Myanmar for peaceful use? military use? the two? Mr. Webb doesn't say for sure; the Burmese generals are not talking, and the Russians are tight lipped.
BHO needs the good will of Russia, so it won't make a public outcry of its role in any Burmese nuclear project. The DPRK is an easier target of abuse, it goes without saying. Washington has much to explain, but it won't. So reader beware of US assertions against North Korea. Much may be sheer fantasy.
Since the USS John McCain couldn't fulfill its mission, BHO's alert remains at best speculation, and at worst a total fabrication. No one will ever know. Or will he?
Now, with a carefully planned visit of Virginia's senator Jim Webb to Myanmar, in a change of Washington's tack towards Yangon , the truth has slowly seen the light of public scrutiny and belies somewhat Washington's war of words towards the DPRK.
BHO is engaged in a kiss and awkwardly making up with Pyongyang and Yangon. And here's where a small kitchen has been let out of the bag. The honourable Mr. Webb is n o stranger to Burma, nor a trumpeter of sanctions against the Burmese generals. Further more in an op ed piece in the reputable 'New York Times Online', he put tin black and what that 'Russia is assisting the Myanmar government on a nuclear project'. Now that is indeed a break through!
The good senator from the state of Virginia in 11 words, shone the spot light on Moscow's role in developing nuclear technology in Myanmar. He says nothing about North Korea. Which makes Guam Diary wonder aloud that the Obama administration drum beating on that rogue capitol Pyongyang is the spoiler in spreading nuclear technology abroad and to pariah regimes [read, aiding other states to arm themselves with nuclear weapons], turns out to be unsubstantiated noise. The US is first to admit that its knowledge of the DPRK is weak, and so it more oft than not, advances unsubstantiated claims or repeats the war messages emanating from the ROC [Republic of Korea aka South Korea].
Well it turns out that Moscow not Pyongyang is in the business of spreading nuclear technology in Myanmar for peaceful use? military use? the two? Mr. Webb doesn't say for sure; the Burmese generals are not talking, and the Russians are tight lipped.
BHO needs the good will of Russia, so it won't make a public outcry of its role in any Burmese nuclear project. The DPRK is an easier target of abuse, it goes without saying. Washington has much to explain, but it won't. So reader beware of US assertions against North Korea. Much may be sheer fantasy.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Divided Korea: Negotiations Will the centre hold?
Two months ago, the money was on the falling apart of US policy towards the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea. US foreign policy managed by secretary of state Hillary Clinton had since April 2009 tilted to the hard, if not harsh, line adopted by the ROC [Republic of Korea aka South Korea] and Japan.
But as Guam Diary has kept account, since the "privatisation" of US policy which was made spectacular by Citizen Bill Clinton's 'sudden mission of mercy' to free two US journalists sentenced to 12 years of hard labour in the DPRK, the Barack Obama [BHO] administration has rushed quickly into the breach of its own failed policy of sanctions, threats, and 'I dare Kim Jong il to try something rash' kindergarten threat, to reverse oars, by seeking old fashioned diplomacy with Pyongyang. After another 'surprise mission of mercy' to the North, this time by Mme. Hyun Jeong un, CEO of the powerful Hyundai Group, implacable foe of Kim Jong il, ROC president Lee Myung bak began marching to the beat of the US drum.
Under the cover of the funeral of Kim Dae Jung on 23 August 2009 a thaw began between South and North after a 30 meeting with a high powered delegation of DPRK officials with Mr. Lee. Guam Diary has already pointed out the significance of Mme. Madeleine Albright representing the US at Mr. Kim's funeral, as well as the 'private talks' with New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with senior DPRK diplomats accredited to the UN, in Santa Fe.
The border at the 38 parallel is open again; talks with South Korea's Red Cross and its DPRK counterpart are going on, to begin anew the bringing together of families separated for the last 55 years, owing to the Korean war; it is also worth noting that tourism to 'Kumgang san' [Diamond mountain] will start once more, as will the acceleration of economic activity in the North's Kaesong industrial park, brought to a halt owing to aggressive moves by Seoul.
Thus, the prospects for renewed talks on North Korea's nuclear programme look promising. And relaxation of tensions on the divided Korean peninsula is noticeable.
Nonetheless, it has to be said that the BHO strategy of putting the maximum pressure on the DPRK through sanctions and crippling Pyongyang's access to foreign trade and hard currency, among other things, has borne 'small potatoes', albeit the policy is in its initial stages, one which has, it seems, dull prospects.
Moreover, it should not slip from one's radar that since the US has mounted the steed of sanctions, and rode into the joust of knocking the DPRK off its horse, Kim Jong il has put forth newer demands which the US & co. will have deal with. In brief, the DPRK has for now bailed out for good from the six party talks in Beijing, in favour of direct negotiations with Washington. Not only that Pyongyang has upped the ante by saying that it won't give up its nuclear 'warheads', about which little is known or how large a stockpile it has.
Already South Korea which turned off the spigot of funding, fertilizers, food, funds, etc. at the beginning of Mr. Lee's presidency in 2008, is proposing huge infusions of cash, if North Korea gives up its nuclear programme. Pyongyang has turned a cold shoulder to this suggestion for the time being.
Washington is keeping up the pretense of enforcing sanctions. Its hit man senior state department official Philip Goldberg is currently in Asia, trying to sign on countries to enforce UN resolution 1854. He is politely heard, but his hands remain empty. Sean Lavery at the US treasury has not fared well either, since the DPRK corporations or banks on his hit list are in Iran, which is sure fire signal how poorly the policy is faring.
So, where does all this leave the BHO administration since the logjam broke with DPRK after Citizen Clinton's 'mission of mercy'. Guam Diary would be harsh in saying it leave the US up the creek without a paddle. More to the point, it does point out the fact that Washington has to back pedal quickly, in order to come up with a new approach to discussions with Pyongyang, and ones which aren't all camouflaged as 'private'. What sticks in US foreign policy caw in dealing with the DPRK, it seems, has more to do with opening negotiating directing with North Korea, something the George Bush administration tried doing for 8 years, and with little success. Although Mme. Clinton will push for going back to the green carpeted table in Beijing, Kim Jong il will press for direct negotiations, which in the end the US will have to decide to do.
As Guam Diary in early August 2009 commented, the pooh bahs of expertise on the question of North Korea turn hawkish on allowing the DPRK to keep its 'nuclear weapons'. Senior diplomats and CIA analysts and well known scholars simply cannot see it. And this even before any negotiations are taking place! You wonder at times how the US can negotiate successfully?
The DPRK has a minimum and maximum programmes in negotiation. For it, everything is negotiable. Consider the 'visite eclaire' of Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang in 1993. Warmly welcomed, he broke through supposedly high barriers of discontent with Kim Il Sung. Returning to Washington with an agreement, which the Clinton White House begrudgingly latched on to, which ushered in a 'golden age' of talks with Pyongyang until the Bush administration sabotaged it through ideological blindness and spite.
Commonsense should tell us that at Foggy Bottom [state department], the White House, and the National Security Council, some people are burning the midnight oil, to come up with a strategy to take advantage of opportunities in negotiating with the DPRK. Yet the inertia of received wisdom and intransigence of the people who against the high tide of the Bush White House, might put a drag on any progress. Flexibility and looking at the issues from things on the ground and not in some spaceship thousands of kilometres in outer space, should be a guide. And above all, in the words of Tallyerand, that long lived opportunist, who survived the old regime in France, the Terror, the Republic, Napoleon, and unto the Restoration of Bourbon kings, should and must be a watch word, 'surtout pas de zele' [above all, play down zealousness]!
Finally, will the centre of negotiations hold? Let's wait and see. They should in the short and medium term. A caveat, as Guam Diary has already noted, the fly in the ointment is a hard line Japan in any regional discussions, and South Korea's attempt to put a satellite on long range missile into outer space. North Korea did, but was bitterly attack by the US, who seized the UN security council calling for sanctions; which it got after forceful arm twisting. Pyongyang is as endless commentators have noticed, is watching to see if and when Seoul does, will it too be on the receiving end of sanctions? [See, Guam Diary's 'Sanctions for South Korea. What's good for the goose is good for the gander? dated 17 August 2009]
But as Guam Diary has kept account, since the "privatisation" of US policy which was made spectacular by Citizen Bill Clinton's 'sudden mission of mercy' to free two US journalists sentenced to 12 years of hard labour in the DPRK, the Barack Obama [BHO] administration has rushed quickly into the breach of its own failed policy of sanctions, threats, and 'I dare Kim Jong il to try something rash' kindergarten threat, to reverse oars, by seeking old fashioned diplomacy with Pyongyang. After another 'surprise mission of mercy' to the North, this time by Mme. Hyun Jeong un, CEO of the powerful Hyundai Group, implacable foe of Kim Jong il, ROC president Lee Myung bak began marching to the beat of the US drum.
Under the cover of the funeral of Kim Dae Jung on 23 August 2009 a thaw began between South and North after a 30 meeting with a high powered delegation of DPRK officials with Mr. Lee. Guam Diary has already pointed out the significance of Mme. Madeleine Albright representing the US at Mr. Kim's funeral, as well as the 'private talks' with New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with senior DPRK diplomats accredited to the UN, in Santa Fe.
The border at the 38 parallel is open again; talks with South Korea's Red Cross and its DPRK counterpart are going on, to begin anew the bringing together of families separated for the last 55 years, owing to the Korean war; it is also worth noting that tourism to 'Kumgang san' [Diamond mountain] will start once more, as will the acceleration of economic activity in the North's Kaesong industrial park, brought to a halt owing to aggressive moves by Seoul.
Thus, the prospects for renewed talks on North Korea's nuclear programme look promising. And relaxation of tensions on the divided Korean peninsula is noticeable.
Nonetheless, it has to be said that the BHO strategy of putting the maximum pressure on the DPRK through sanctions and crippling Pyongyang's access to foreign trade and hard currency, among other things, has borne 'small potatoes', albeit the policy is in its initial stages, one which has, it seems, dull prospects.
Moreover, it should not slip from one's radar that since the US has mounted the steed of sanctions, and rode into the joust of knocking the DPRK off its horse, Kim Jong il has put forth newer demands which the US & co. will have deal with. In brief, the DPRK has for now bailed out for good from the six party talks in Beijing, in favour of direct negotiations with Washington. Not only that Pyongyang has upped the ante by saying that it won't give up its nuclear 'warheads', about which little is known or how large a stockpile it has.
Already South Korea which turned off the spigot of funding, fertilizers, food, funds, etc. at the beginning of Mr. Lee's presidency in 2008, is proposing huge infusions of cash, if North Korea gives up its nuclear programme. Pyongyang has turned a cold shoulder to this suggestion for the time being.
Washington is keeping up the pretense of enforcing sanctions. Its hit man senior state department official Philip Goldberg is currently in Asia, trying to sign on countries to enforce UN resolution 1854. He is politely heard, but his hands remain empty. Sean Lavery at the US treasury has not fared well either, since the DPRK corporations or banks on his hit list are in Iran, which is sure fire signal how poorly the policy is faring.
So, where does all this leave the BHO administration since the logjam broke with DPRK after Citizen Clinton's 'mission of mercy'. Guam Diary would be harsh in saying it leave the US up the creek without a paddle. More to the point, it does point out the fact that Washington has to back pedal quickly, in order to come up with a new approach to discussions with Pyongyang, and ones which aren't all camouflaged as 'private'. What sticks in US foreign policy caw in dealing with the DPRK, it seems, has more to do with opening negotiating directing with North Korea, something the George Bush administration tried doing for 8 years, and with little success. Although Mme. Clinton will push for going back to the green carpeted table in Beijing, Kim Jong il will press for direct negotiations, which in the end the US will have to decide to do.
As Guam Diary in early August 2009 commented, the pooh bahs of expertise on the question of North Korea turn hawkish on allowing the DPRK to keep its 'nuclear weapons'. Senior diplomats and CIA analysts and well known scholars simply cannot see it. And this even before any negotiations are taking place! You wonder at times how the US can negotiate successfully?
The DPRK has a minimum and maximum programmes in negotiation. For it, everything is negotiable. Consider the 'visite eclaire' of Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang in 1993. Warmly welcomed, he broke through supposedly high barriers of discontent with Kim Il Sung. Returning to Washington with an agreement, which the Clinton White House begrudgingly latched on to, which ushered in a 'golden age' of talks with Pyongyang until the Bush administration sabotaged it through ideological blindness and spite.
Commonsense should tell us that at Foggy Bottom [state department], the White House, and the National Security Council, some people are burning the midnight oil, to come up with a strategy to take advantage of opportunities in negotiating with the DPRK. Yet the inertia of received wisdom and intransigence of the people who against the high tide of the Bush White House, might put a drag on any progress. Flexibility and looking at the issues from things on the ground and not in some spaceship thousands of kilometres in outer space, should be a guide. And above all, in the words of Tallyerand, that long lived opportunist, who survived the old regime in France, the Terror, the Republic, Napoleon, and unto the Restoration of Bourbon kings, should and must be a watch word, 'surtout pas de zele' [above all, play down zealousness]!
Finally, will the centre of negotiations hold? Let's wait and see. They should in the short and medium term. A caveat, as Guam Diary has already noted, the fly in the ointment is a hard line Japan in any regional discussions, and South Korea's attempt to put a satellite on long range missile into outer space. North Korea did, but was bitterly attack by the US, who seized the UN security council calling for sanctions; which it got after forceful arm twisting. Pyongyang is as endless commentators have noticed, is watching to see if and when Seoul does, will it too be on the receiving end of sanctions? [See, Guam Diary's 'Sanctions for South Korea. What's good for the goose is good for the gander? dated 17 August 2009]
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