Yesterday Guam Diary broached the matter of solecism in US' approach to the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea], by giving a rundown of the discussion at the Japan Society in New York. Theme: North Korea: the challenges for the US, Japan, and South Korea. A scholar on Korea, an ex CIA analyst, and a former senior diplomat now president of the New York based Korea Society discussed the topic for the scheduled time of 60 minutes. As Guam Diary observed, the former CIA analyst tersely summed up the issues by saying US policy towards North Korea is as though it had jumped out of an aeroplane without a parachute, and was in free fall, and nursing hope against hope for a soft landing somewhere, anywhere. In the glare of the DPRK's new standpoint towards the US, the scholar and the former senior diplomat dig heels into outdated positions, stating that North Korea had stepped over the line that the US had drawn in the sand, and that was a matter of very serious concern. Which when analysed boiled down to the nitty gritty, and stripped to its bare bones, we find a good example of American exceptionalism. The US had laid down terms of engagement, and North Korea was playing the game as planned. Books, doctoral theses, and endless articles have been written on the matter, To not put a finer point, it can be best summed up by referring to a quotation from the Bible: America can see the mote in the DPRK's eye, but not the speck of dust in its own eye.
For America, the chapter on Korea is hardly stellar. The armies of the DPRK and the Chinese volunteers fought the UN forces, actually commanded with full authority by the US with little UN control and imput, to a stalemate. Then the US had egg on its face with the 'Pueblo' incident; almost took up arms in the mid 1970's during the 'tree cutting incident' at the 38 parallel, and fast forward to the early years of the Clinton administration, itching for a fight, found itself outmaneuvered by the surprise visit of Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang, and an agreement with Kim Il Sung which provided what nostalgically looks like the opening and golden age of discussions and negotiations with the DPRK especially on the nuclear issue. The 8 years of George Bush torpedoed any progress made; Mr. Bush's missteps and ideologically driven policy towards the DPRK, turned Pyongyang into a nuclear power. This made Bush backpeddle and in a tack not to discuss anything face to face with North Korea, devised the six party talk which made any breakthroughs on outstanding and pressing issues long and arduous and laboriously without much headway. With BHO, positions hardened the more especially since Kim Jong il didn't put off the launch of a satellite on a long range rocket. His refusal gave wide berth to sanctions in the UN Security Council initiated by BHO & co., measures which Pyongyang labelled causes for war. And there the matter lay, doubled with the start up of the DPRK's nuclear programme which it had shut down, more short and medium rocket launches, and an underground explosion which no sensors would qualify as a nuclear explosion.
Fortuitously, two US journalists got nabbed for entering North Korea illegally; were tried and condemned to 12 years of hard labour. This was the hook on which the opportunity hung for relaxing a war of propaganda which heightened tensions between the US and the DPRK.
For Pyongyang watchers something was a foot when in early July, the US didn't condemn Pyongyang's launch of short and medium range missiles in early July, followed by an apology to North Korea on behalf of the two reporters, who openly and willingly acknowledged that they had entered the DPRK illegally, and after this came Citizen Bill Clinton's trip to Pyongyang and their release.
In the meantf ime, Kim Jong il had put forth new positions, calling for face to face talks with Washington, since it had since April 2009 walked out for good, it is noted, from the six party talks in Beijing; for the US' part, BHO had put South Korea under the US nuclear protection. Now, Pyongyang saw this as a restatement of a threat to its own survival and wanted to recognised as a nuclear power which the US refused to do. On the heels of a call for direct negotiations, the UN Secretary General Ban Ki moon announced that such talks, another avenue for defusing heightened tension, were indeed welcome. In fact, here we may see a modality to achieve denuclearisation of the divided Korean peninsula by Pyongyang agreeing to stop for good its nuclear programme and Washington removing nuclear cover over South Korea, which decompress a situation which by chance or design lead to nuclear war, and thus allow the DPRK's neighbours room to breathe a sigh of relief. Now back to the Japan Society panel.
But for the realism of the ex CIA speaker, the scholar and the former senior diplomat brushed aside discussion of North Korea's new position, falling back on returning to six party talks in Beijing, honouring past commitments, etc. They refused to consider Kim Jong il's call for recognition of the DPRK as a nuclear power who might like South Africa and Libya give up its weapons, or another process other than a return to Beijing which Pyongyang proclaimed a dead horse. Such demands were they loudly proclaimed, unacceptable, although the former diplomat to the sheer surprise of the scholar's arched eyebrows, thought there was something in toe to toe talks. But recognition of North Korea was hors de oquestion, pure and simple. No one raised the matter of Israel's undeclared nuclear stockpile, bu some would say, Israel neither denied nor confirmed that it was a nuclear power, which at the time of the Suez Crisis of 1956 the Socialist coalition of Guy Mollet transferred nuclear technology to Israel to allow it to join the nuclear club. Israel swears that it will never use first such weapons and at the same time not saying its a nuclear nation. Such a fiction could work in the case of North Korea, but even to think in this manner, we are treading don the thin ice of lese majeste for America's elite who have imput on elaborating US policy.
We are in the hallowed presence of sacred texts, set in stone. We see a stubbornness to think outside the box, as the Americans like to say. Which simply underscores the ex CIA analyst's remarks that the US has nothing new in its approach to North Korea.
Elaborators and commentators and thought merchants such as the scholar and the former diplomat, should know almost instinctively that in diplomacy the sands shift rapidly or slowly but nothing is in stasis. What the US is lacking is any meaningful contact with the DPRK, although as the ex CIA panelist pointed out that there is enough material and contacts with say the Chinese and the Russians, to glean a goodly amount of information about what's happening in the DPRK. For what we read in the mainstream US press is a lot of fanciful reporting of rumour and innuendo, which like the wind blow today in one direction, and two minutes later in another.
No one is going to defend the DPRK for its repressive internal policies, but on the diplomatic playing field it is an independent country which deserves equal treatment. Something which US policy makers and analysts and scholars hardly recognise.
No one knows what BHO & co will do next, hiding behind the fiction that Citizen Clinton's trip didn't originate with them, wink, wink, wink, nor on the basis of Clinton's discussions with Kim Jong il to whom he extended a written or verbal message. But for the moment, if we go by official pronouncement of the White House or State, or the ideas advanced at Japan Society, we come away with an typically American solecism...a view of the world that what the US ordains, the world should follow. But as the French expression goes, it is more as though the US policy wonks and elites and government myopic in view take the clock striking two o'clock as the noon hour. With such a distorted view, little wonder US policy towards North Korea blunders.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Citizen Clinton reporting for duty
Fresh from a 'triumphal' engagement in Pyongyang, Citizen Clinton has already met with the US National Security Council [NSC], the co ordinating body of all US intelligence agencies. Citizen Clinton, after what is advertised as a 'private visit', a mission of mercy, was 'debriefed'. He will soon meet with president Barack Obama [BHO], to give an account of the 195 minutes he spent with the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea].
For the US public, no one has a klew whether it will be provided with a 'santised' version of Citizen Clinton's 'compte rendu' of his 20 hours in the DPRK, or any explanation at all.
For the time being, BHO continues reading from his administration's script that the USthey abide will not reward Kim Jong il & co. for their bad behaviour; that they return to the six party talks; and that abide by promises they agreed to concerning North Korea's nuclear programme.
And there we are, waiting for the other shoe to drop!
For the US public, no one has a klew whether it will be provided with a 'santised' version of Citizen Clinton's 'compte rendu' of his 20 hours in the DPRK, or any explanation at all.
For the time being, BHO continues reading from his administration's script that the USthey abide will not reward Kim Jong il & co. for their bad behaviour; that they return to the six party talks; and that abide by promises they agreed to concerning North Korea's nuclear programme.
And there we are, waiting for the other shoe to drop!
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Solecism at New York Japan Society: North Korea: the US, Japan, and South Korea
On Thursday morning 6 August 2009 as part of Japan Society series of discussions in New York, a distinguished panel of experts me to discuss the challenges facing the US, Japan, and South Korea by North Korea. Sponsored in conjunction with Mansfield Foundation, Alicia Ogawa, former investment banker, director of the Foundation, chaired the 90 minute meeting. L. Gordon Flake of the Foundation, Robert Carlin formerly of KEDO, and analyst at the CIA, and Evans Revere, former senior State Department official and current president of the New York based Korea Society made up the panel.
Before looking at remarks of theirs, the turnout on such a hot ticket item of moment, wot, with Citizen Clinton's 20 hours visit to Pyongyang and his return to California with the two pardoned reporters sentenced to 12 years of hard labour, was rather disappointing. Not to lose face, Japan Society papered the session with students taking Japanese, who filled to capacity the room.
With such a high profile panel, the questions were straight forward. America's perception of Kim Jong il; the future of negotiations with the DPRK; in sum, the questions normally broached when talking about North Korea. Only at the end did it occur to Ogawa to ask about the view from Seoul, Tokyo, and yes, Beijing.
Flake and Revere more or less took a narrow view of the current state of affairs between the US and North Korea. Carlin, bless him, offered a breath of fresh air. He went straight to the heart of the matter by saying as things stand Washington's tack towards Pyongyang is as though it had leapt from an aeroplane without a parachute, and was in free fall, where it would land is anyone's guess. Yet, he was not in despair.
Flake and Revere read from the same script more or less. For Flake the more conventional of the panelists, the DPRK would never be recognised as a nuclear power; it had agreed to denuclearise, and what's more had to return to a multiparty venue to iron out differences, and more to the point never would the US agree to bilateral negotiations, which, to him, meant wiggling out of past obligations.
Revere in diplomatic speak kept referring to new positions of put forth by North Korea were 'unacceptable' and it should be told that up front, more or less. Revere's position is rather unsettling from a man who worked through back channels with the DPRK on Citizen Clinton's 'visite eclaire' to Pyongyang, and who heads an 'NGO' who favours engagement not confrontation with Pyongyang, and has helped arranged programmes for scholars and students from the DPRK to study in the US or the New York Philharmonic to go to Pyongyang. Old State Department habits die hard, it seems.
Revere has good contacts with North Koreans, so you would think he might have a more nuanced understanding of North Korea's new proposals for direct talks. Flake too is no stranger to talks with North Koreans, but he too is wired to older attitudes. And here the wise old analyst Carlin puts his finger into the puffery of received wisdom. Negotiations mean discussions and discussions mean setting forth positions and looking for common ground of understanding, to say the bare minimum. Flake and Revere do not see this at all. They are imbued with a sense that what the US says and thinks is right. And it is in this sense, Guam Diary can label the discussions as an exercise in solecism and yet another example of Uncle Sam throwing around its weight at the wrong time.
Since no one really talked of the unacceptability of North Korea's position. The three panelist thought the Obama administration's position was more reactive not proactive. Well it depends on which end of the telescope you're looking through, doesn't it? President Obama [BHO] & co's tack is a little of the two. Let's quickly review the 8 month history of the US and the DPRK. As is well know Pyongyang is not easy to deal with, but BOH played hardball when the DPRK after giving advanced warning of its long range missile launch of a satellite, found Washington's 'order' to call it off the moment. It didn't, and seemingly BOH & co. seeing this as a slap in the face, immediately seized the UN Security Council calling for sanctions against the DPRK, for violating on spurious grounds resolution 1718. Well, Kim Jong il's response was quick and immediate. Vote sanctions and we're going to restart our nuclear programme, test short, medium, and long range missiles. The US arm twisted the Council so that no one cast a veto and unanimously sanctions passed. Pyongyang upped the ante by saying that it had abandoned for good the six party confab in Beijing and as a slap in the face, tore up the 1953 Armistice agreement, potentially turning a frozen war into a hot one. To stick it to the US, the DPRK on 26 May 2009 set off a powerful underground explosion which according to 'Science' and 200 global sensors, including one in South Korea, bore no traces of radioactive fallout. This sent Washington back to the Security Conauncil for more sanctions, put forth in another resolution 1859[sic] calling for freezing North Korean assets abroad, boarding DPRK vessels on the high seas, etc. Pyongyang responded any attempt to stop its vessels in international waters, it regarded as a 'causus belli', grounds for war. aAnd thereafter the tensions between Washi ngton and Pyongyang grew more taut and menacing. Not only did Kim Jong il & co. reject returning to Beijing for multilateral talks, it called for direct negotiations, and recognition as a nuclear power. These new demands cut to the heart of BOH's strategy: relying on China to do its own dirty work, and isolling for sanctions against the DPRK, for violating on spurious grounds resolution 1718. Well, Kim Jong il's response was quick and immediate. Vote sanctions and we're going to restart our nuclear programme, test short, medium, and long range missiles. The US arm twisted the Council so that no one cast a veto and unanimously sanctions passed. Pyongyang upped the ante by saying that it had abandoned for good the six party confab in Beijing and as a slap in the face, tore up the 1953 Armistice agreement, potentially turning a frozen war into a hot one. To stick it to the US, the DPRK on 26 May 2009 set off a powerful underground explosion which according to 'Science' and 200 global sensors, including one in South Korea, bore no traces of radioactive fallout. This sent Washington back to the Security Conauncil for more sanctions, put forth in another resolution 1859[sic] calling for freezing North Korean assets abroad, boarding DPRK vessels on the high seas, etc. Pyongyang responded any attempt to stop its vessels in international waters, it regarded as a 'causus belli', grounds for war. And thereafter the tensions between Washington and Pyongyang grew more taut and menacing. Further mor the DPRK restated its demands, calling for direct talks with Washington and vowing never to return to multiparty talks in Beijing. In one stroke of a pen, it knocked pins out of BOH's strategy for relying on China to do its dirty work with Pyongyang, and challenged Washington's hard line common front with an agressive South Korea and Japan.
And yet the DPRK had a card to play which it did. Two US journalists violating North Korean territory in pursuit of a story on refugees, found themselves arrested, tried, and sentenced to 12 years of hard labor. Herein lies a tale of Citizen Clinton's unexpected trip to the DPRK.
And here BOH & co. take refuge in the myth, Clinton's trip was divorced from any ties to the White House, in spite of the fact that BOH's fingerprint was all over Mr Clinton's mission of mercy.
BOH & co. are insisting on a return to the disavowed six party talks in Beijing, repeating stern warnings, and ostensibly talking to Kim Jong il as though he were not the head of a sovereign country; a brief Pyongyang has with Washington about not being treated as an equal.
Which brings us back to Robert Carlin's spot on observation that BHO has no follow up strategy and is in free fall. Which means if the DPRK doesn't step back, we're in for a jolly war! Or so it seems. Flake and Revere and so imbued with a white streak of America's self righteous and exceptionalism, that it does come to their mind to find out and probe more about North Korea's thinking. Which again we come back to Carlin's clearsightedness, about the nature of negotiations, probing, so on and on. Both Flake and Revere violate, it seems to Guam Diary, the advice of Talleyrand who counselled 'pas trop de zele' in diplomacy.
And here Guam Diary will stop. Citizen Clinton did convery a message from BHO to Kim Jong il. For the moment everyone waits to see the results of Clinton's trip. But time is not on Washington's side.
Before looking at remarks of theirs, the turnout on such a hot ticket item of moment, wot, with Citizen Clinton's 20 hours visit to Pyongyang and his return to California with the two pardoned reporters sentenced to 12 years of hard labour, was rather disappointing. Not to lose face, Japan Society papered the session with students taking Japanese, who filled to capacity the room.
With such a high profile panel, the questions were straight forward. America's perception of Kim Jong il; the future of negotiations with the DPRK; in sum, the questions normally broached when talking about North Korea. Only at the end did it occur to Ogawa to ask about the view from Seoul, Tokyo, and yes, Beijing.
Flake and Revere more or less took a narrow view of the current state of affairs between the US and North Korea. Carlin, bless him, offered a breath of fresh air. He went straight to the heart of the matter by saying as things stand Washington's tack towards Pyongyang is as though it had leapt from an aeroplane without a parachute, and was in free fall, where it would land is anyone's guess. Yet, he was not in despair.
Flake and Revere read from the same script more or less. For Flake the more conventional of the panelists, the DPRK would never be recognised as a nuclear power; it had agreed to denuclearise, and what's more had to return to a multiparty venue to iron out differences, and more to the point never would the US agree to bilateral negotiations, which, to him, meant wiggling out of past obligations.
Revere in diplomatic speak kept referring to new positions of put forth by North Korea were 'unacceptable' and it should be told that up front, more or less. Revere's position is rather unsettling from a man who worked through back channels with the DPRK on Citizen Clinton's 'visite eclaire' to Pyongyang, and who heads an 'NGO' who favours engagement not confrontation with Pyongyang, and has helped arranged programmes for scholars and students from the DPRK to study in the US or the New York Philharmonic to go to Pyongyang. Old State Department habits die hard, it seems.
Revere has good contacts with North Koreans, so you would think he might have a more nuanced understanding of North Korea's new proposals for direct talks. Flake too is no stranger to talks with North Koreans, but he too is wired to older attitudes. And here the wise old analyst Carlin puts his finger into the puffery of received wisdom. Negotiations mean discussions and discussions mean setting forth positions and looking for common ground of understanding, to say the bare minimum. Flake and Revere do not see this at all. They are imbued with a sense that what the US says and thinks is right. And it is in this sense, Guam Diary can label the discussions as an exercise in solecism and yet another example of Uncle Sam throwing around its weight at the wrong time.
Since no one really talked of the unacceptability of North Korea's position. The three panelist thought the Obama administration's position was more reactive not proactive. Well it depends on which end of the telescope you're looking through, doesn't it? President Obama [BHO] & co's tack is a little of the two. Let's quickly review the 8 month history of the US and the DPRK. As is well know Pyongyang is not easy to deal with, but BOH played hardball when the DPRK after giving advanced warning of its long range missile launch of a satellite, found Washington's 'order' to call it off the moment. It didn't, and seemingly BOH & co. seeing this as a slap in the face, immediately seized the UN Security Council calling for sanctions against the DPRK, for violating on spurious grounds resolution 1718. Well, Kim Jong il's response was quick and immediate. Vote sanctions and we're going to restart our nuclear programme, test short, medium, and long range missiles. The US arm twisted the Council so that no one cast a veto and unanimously sanctions passed. Pyongyang upped the ante by saying that it had abandoned for good the six party confab in Beijing and as a slap in the face, tore up the 1953 Armistice agreement, potentially turning a frozen war into a hot one. To stick it to the US, the DPRK on 26 May 2009 set off a powerful underground explosion which according to 'Science' and 200 global sensors, including one in South Korea, bore no traces of radioactive fallout. This sent Washington back to the Security Conauncil for more sanctions, put forth in another resolution 1859[sic] calling for freezing North Korean assets abroad, boarding DPRK vessels on the high seas, etc. Pyongyang responded any attempt to stop its vessels in international waters, it regarded as a 'causus belli', grounds for war. aAnd thereafter the tensions between Washi ngton and Pyongyang grew more taut and menacing. Not only did Kim Jong il & co. reject returning to Beijing for multilateral talks, it called for direct negotiations, and recognition as a nuclear power. These new demands cut to the heart of BOH's strategy: relying on China to do its own dirty work, and isolling for sanctions against the DPRK, for violating on spurious grounds resolution 1718. Well, Kim Jong il's response was quick and immediate. Vote sanctions and we're going to restart our nuclear programme, test short, medium, and long range missiles. The US arm twisted the Council so that no one cast a veto and unanimously sanctions passed. Pyongyang upped the ante by saying that it had abandoned for good the six party confab in Beijing and as a slap in the face, tore up the 1953 Armistice agreement, potentially turning a frozen war into a hot one. To stick it to the US, the DPRK on 26 May 2009 set off a powerful underground explosion which according to 'Science' and 200 global sensors, including one in South Korea, bore no traces of radioactive fallout. This sent Washington back to the Security Conauncil for more sanctions, put forth in another resolution 1859[sic] calling for freezing North Korean assets abroad, boarding DPRK vessels on the high seas, etc. Pyongyang responded any attempt to stop its vessels in international waters, it regarded as a 'causus belli', grounds for war. And thereafter the tensions between Washington and Pyongyang grew more taut and menacing. Further mor the DPRK restated its demands, calling for direct talks with Washington and vowing never to return to multiparty talks in Beijing. In one stroke of a pen, it knocked pins out of BOH's strategy for relying on China to do its dirty work with Pyongyang, and challenged Washington's hard line common front with an agressive South Korea and Japan.
And yet the DPRK had a card to play which it did. Two US journalists violating North Korean territory in pursuit of a story on refugees, found themselves arrested, tried, and sentenced to 12 years of hard labor. Herein lies a tale of Citizen Clinton's unexpected trip to the DPRK.
And here BOH & co. take refuge in the myth, Clinton's trip was divorced from any ties to the White House, in spite of the fact that BOH's fingerprint was all over Mr Clinton's mission of mercy.
BOH & co. are insisting on a return to the disavowed six party talks in Beijing, repeating stern warnings, and ostensibly talking to Kim Jong il as though he were not the head of a sovereign country; a brief Pyongyang has with Washington about not being treated as an equal.
Which brings us back to Robert Carlin's spot on observation that BHO has no follow up strategy and is in free fall. Which means if the DPRK doesn't step back, we're in for a jolly war! Or so it seems. Flake and Revere and so imbued with a white streak of America's self righteous and exceptionalism, that it does come to their mind to find out and probe more about North Korea's thinking. Which again we come back to Carlin's clearsightedness, about the nature of negotiations, probing, so on and on. Both Flake and Revere violate, it seems to Guam Diary, the advice of Talleyrand who counselled 'pas trop de zele' in diplomacy.
And here Guam Diary will stop. Citizen Clinton did convery a message from BHO to Kim Jong il. For the moment everyone waits to see the results of Clinton's trip. But time is not on Washington's side.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Citizen Clinton brings home the bacon
Citizen Clinton has returned home triumphantly.Accompanied by journalist Laura Ling and Euna Lee, sentenced to 12 years of hard labour in a North Korean prison camp, Citizen Clinton's meeting with the DRPK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea] leader Kim Jong il, secured the two women's freedom. Although Mr. Clinton is maintaining the fiction, his was a private visit; he, on a humanitarian mission, it is obvious that the Obama administration's fingerprints are everywhere to be found. Mr. Clinton travelled to Pyongyang with John Podesta, US president Barack Obama's [BOH] transition team hit man, but not a member of BOH's administration and David Staub, a former Korean specialist at the state department; however the other members who journeyed with Citizen Clinton remain unnamed in the mainstream press accounts.
Washington has a reputation for leaks. BOH is playing with his cards close to his chests, and has locked down tight the rumour millions in his administration. The fiction persists that Mr. Clinton acted on his own. It is probably true that he hand Kim Jong il a letter from BOH. Now, Citizen Clinton spent 195 minutes in discussions with the Korean leader. Take away the time to enquire about health, granting a pardon to the two reporters, agreed upon before hand, that still leaders say 180 minutes of unaccounted topics of discussions. [And speaking of health...Kim Jong il almost less stout than in 2008, looked slimmer but hardly fragile as newspapers say. He has recovered from his illness of last fall, and as the FEER [Far Eastern Economic Review]remarked, Mr. Kim is in less dire health than the global media reported.
Unlike Jimmy Carter's 'visite eclaire' to Pyongyang 15 years ago, a trip which earned him the Clinton White House's anger and displeasure, in spite of a breakthough with Kim Il Sung and then years of talks with Kim Jong il, Citizen Clinton's trip was heavily scripted; each step planned in advance. So, it is quite reasonable to believe that he broached the nuclear issues, relaxation of tensions on the divided Korean peninsula, the modalities for direct talks as Mr. Kim's recent pronouncements seek, so on and on and on.
Citizen Clinton's success brought immediate cheers from the mainstream press and politicians and instant relief for the Liang and Lee families. It met with general popular approval from the US public. Thus, it kept the naysayers and the hardliners quiet for the moment. Had they attacked Clinton or even BOH, they would run a backlash and a setback. They prefer instead to await for a more propitious moment to draw their daggers. And BOH is not giving them an inch. The White House remains mum until such time that it can make more political hay out of Citizen Clinton's tour de force.
Mr. Clinton's visit cleared the air for further direct discussions with the DPRK. The naysayers however are stirring, but they're aiming at the wrong targets: Bill Clinton and his wife US secretary of state Hillary Clinton. Mme. Clinton has not tempered her hardline towards Pyongyang nor has she stopped lecturing on what it should do to gain US and international favour.
Nevertheless BOH & co. will stick to its cover story that Citizen Clinton was on a purely humanitarian mission. Wink, wink, wink!
Judging by the initial reaction of the mainstream media, Charlie Rose will serve as an instructive sample. In a 15 minute segment, especially added for his 4 August 2009 programme, he interviewed Glenn Kessler of 'the Washington Post' and strategic arms analyst Joseph Cirincione of the Plowshare Fund. All three were upbeat. A win for America! At times Rose had to prompt Kessler who less than enthusiastic. Cirincione was buoyant, adding that Bill Clinton wasn't a naeme that first came to BHO, but it did to Kim Jong il. Mr. Clinton is respected for his moderate tone towards the DPRK in contrast to the George Bush's mean spirited and deleterious approach towards North Korea.Al Gore's name was bruited but the two imprisoned journalist worked for him. Mr.Kim knew what he was doing when he asked for Citizen Clinton, and flash, BOH signed on but held the ebullient Bill Clinton on a tight lease and well rehearsed lines. All three men repeated in one form or another that it was a big win for the US, Cirercione putting it rather crudely 'for peanuts'. And this from a man who graduated from Georgetown School of Diplomacy! And yet, neither Rose nor Kessler nor Cirincione nor Kessler even bother to mention that BOH after his own fashion was responding to Kim Jong il's call for direct negotiations within the last 10 days.
Citizen Clinton's image emerges enhance. The ball now lies in BOH's court on how to proceed from here. Kim Jong il has opened the door, BOH has only to walk through it.
Washington has a reputation for leaks. BOH is playing with his cards close to his chests, and has locked down tight the rumour millions in his administration. The fiction persists that Mr. Clinton acted on his own. It is probably true that he hand Kim Jong il a letter from BOH. Now, Citizen Clinton spent 195 minutes in discussions with the Korean leader. Take away the time to enquire about health, granting a pardon to the two reporters, agreed upon before hand, that still leaders say 180 minutes of unaccounted topics of discussions. [And speaking of health...Kim Jong il almost less stout than in 2008, looked slimmer but hardly fragile as newspapers say. He has recovered from his illness of last fall, and as the FEER [Far Eastern Economic Review]remarked, Mr. Kim is in less dire health than the global media reported.
Unlike Jimmy Carter's 'visite eclaire' to Pyongyang 15 years ago, a trip which earned him the Clinton White House's anger and displeasure, in spite of a breakthough with Kim Il Sung and then years of talks with Kim Jong il, Citizen Clinton's trip was heavily scripted; each step planned in advance. So, it is quite reasonable to believe that he broached the nuclear issues, relaxation of tensions on the divided Korean peninsula, the modalities for direct talks as Mr. Kim's recent pronouncements seek, so on and on and on.
Citizen Clinton's success brought immediate cheers from the mainstream press and politicians and instant relief for the Liang and Lee families. It met with general popular approval from the US public. Thus, it kept the naysayers and the hardliners quiet for the moment. Had they attacked Clinton or even BOH, they would run a backlash and a setback. They prefer instead to await for a more propitious moment to draw their daggers. And BOH is not giving them an inch. The White House remains mum until such time that it can make more political hay out of Citizen Clinton's tour de force.
Mr. Clinton's visit cleared the air for further direct discussions with the DPRK. The naysayers however are stirring, but they're aiming at the wrong targets: Bill Clinton and his wife US secretary of state Hillary Clinton. Mme. Clinton has not tempered her hardline towards Pyongyang nor has she stopped lecturing on what it should do to gain US and international favour.
Nevertheless BOH & co. will stick to its cover story that Citizen Clinton was on a purely humanitarian mission. Wink, wink, wink!
Judging by the initial reaction of the mainstream media, Charlie Rose will serve as an instructive sample. In a 15 minute segment, especially added for his 4 August 2009 programme, he interviewed Glenn Kessler of 'the Washington Post' and strategic arms analyst Joseph Cirincione of the Plowshare Fund. All three were upbeat. A win for America! At times Rose had to prompt Kessler who less than enthusiastic. Cirincione was buoyant, adding that Bill Clinton wasn't a naeme that first came to BHO, but it did to Kim Jong il. Mr. Clinton is respected for his moderate tone towards the DPRK in contrast to the George Bush's mean spirited and deleterious approach towards North Korea.Al Gore's name was bruited but the two imprisoned journalist worked for him. Mr.Kim knew what he was doing when he asked for Citizen Clinton, and flash, BOH signed on but held the ebullient Bill Clinton on a tight lease and well rehearsed lines. All three men repeated in one form or another that it was a big win for the US, Cirercione putting it rather crudely 'for peanuts'. And this from a man who graduated from Georgetown School of Diplomacy! And yet, neither Rose nor Kessler nor Cirincione nor Kessler even bother to mention that BOH after his own fashion was responding to Kim Jong il's call for direct negotiations within the last 10 days.
Citizen Clinton's image emerges enhance. The ball now lies in BOH's court on how to proceed from here. Kim Jong il has opened the door, BOH has only to walk through it.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Citizen Clinton in Pyongyang
Former US president Bill Clinton has come to Pyongyang on a mission of mercy. He arrived in an unmarked aeroplane in the capital of the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea aka North Korea] on Tuesday 4 August 2009. Ostensibly he came to seek the release of two American journalist Laura Lin and Euna Lee, sentenced to 12 years of hard labour for entering the DPRK illegally. At first, the White House denied that he was carrying a personal message from president Obama [BHO], but finally US authorities admitted he was Citizen Clinton was immediately met with the DRPK's Kim Jong il, to hand deliver BOH's greetings.
North Koreans know Citizen Clinton well. They dealt with him for almost his full 8 years in office, especially after the startling and unannounced visit by Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang in 1993. Farmer Carter met with Kim Il Sung, and that meeting relaxed Mr. Clinton's finger on the nuclear trigger and opened years of negotiations with the DPRK; negotiations which put a hold of sorts on Pyongyang's nuclear programme. The high point during Clinton's time in office occurred late in his presidency with the visit of his secretary of state Madeleine Albright. She returned with a good assessment of lead Kim Jong il, and an invitation for her boss to visit the DPRK. Weakened by the Lewinsky scandal and bad advice from Korean experts, Clinton decided not to go. A serious blunder as the 8 years of George Bush proved. Now 8 years and 8 months later, we find Citizen Clinton in the DPRK with a message from BOH whose administrnation had squared off menacingly with Kim Jong il, making a rash show of temper into a taunt and serious situation capable of military action through sanctions, UN Security Council resolutions, and threats to board outbound North Korean vessels on international waters. Hyper nationalist North Korea never shies away from threats; as a response to sanctions, threats, and taunting by Citizen Clinton's own wife US secretary Hillary Clinton, herself a hardliner up and down the line on North Korea, Mr. Kim reactivated the quiescent nuclear programme, exploded a powerful non nuclear underground bomb, launched medium and short range rockets, and tore up the 1953 Armistice agreement turning the Korean War into a potentially hot war again.
On top of this, North Korean courts tried two US journalists who knowingly violated DPRK territory without proper documentation, and who tried to flee when caught, thereby adding another layer of tension between Pyongyang and Washington. At the same time, the arrest of Lin and Lee opened a way to reestablish talking points with Washington. And so, by way of background, we see Citizen Clinton on his mission of mercy to Pyongyang. There he hopes Kim Jong il will allow him to accompany the two reporters home as a sign of his country's good will. Maybe yes, maybe no. Chances are Mr. Kim will seize the opportunity to unfreeze Washington's ice age diplomacy, the more especially since he recently called for direct discussions with the US.
Guam Diary is not the only one to scratch its head over America's penchant for making a bad situation worse or to turn an opportunity into a crisis. BOH took a hizzy fit when in fair warning Pyongyang gave advanced warning that it was going to launch a satellite on a long range rocket. BOH counselled delay; Pyongyang proceed with its plans. Then BOH & co. seized the UN Security Council for sanctions against the DPRK on shaky juridical grounds. And thus the ball of string began unraveling. Such a prescription by the US made little sense in respecting the practices of good diplomacy. It stifled at one fell swoop any chance for valuable conversation; it quashed any initiatives to work out issues on the table at the six party talks in Beijing. The DPRK has abandoned these talks. By this fiat, Pyongyang has knocked the pins out Washington's strategy to used China as a surrogate to wring concession from North Korea, and at the same time, it shows the hollowness of BOH's alignment with the rigid, renewed Cold War strategy towards the DPRK of South Korea and Japan.
As the saying goes, you don't send a boy to do a man's job. The US for many reasons has been loath under Bush's 8 years in office to talk directly with the DPRK. It was willing and BOH, too, adopting the Bush strategy with his hard line secretary of state Mme. Clinton, to out do Bush in mindless stubbornness, to talk to Pyongyang on the sidelines without nary a breakthrough. In brief, the US has to do its own 'dirty work', straw men won't do. The DPRK called BOH's bluff. So seeking Mr. Kim's clemency in releasing two journalist, it is hoped that a new chapter will begin in talks between the DPRK and the US.
American critics will cry 'sellout', but it is the chronic illness of US policy to pay the pound of cure rather than take the ounce of prevention in the beginning.
It is time that Washington end the Korean War once and for all, and expand useful policies which will avoid the endemic pratfalls and errors that it so loves to commit in the conduct of its foreign policy. It's time American diplomats act as diplomats and not like warriors.
North Koreans know Citizen Clinton well. They dealt with him for almost his full 8 years in office, especially after the startling and unannounced visit by Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang in 1993. Farmer Carter met with Kim Il Sung, and that meeting relaxed Mr. Clinton's finger on the nuclear trigger and opened years of negotiations with the DPRK; negotiations which put a hold of sorts on Pyongyang's nuclear programme. The high point during Clinton's time in office occurred late in his presidency with the visit of his secretary of state Madeleine Albright. She returned with a good assessment of lead Kim Jong il, and an invitation for her boss to visit the DPRK. Weakened by the Lewinsky scandal and bad advice from Korean experts, Clinton decided not to go. A serious blunder as the 8 years of George Bush proved. Now 8 years and 8 months later, we find Citizen Clinton in the DPRK with a message from BOH whose administrnation had squared off menacingly with Kim Jong il, making a rash show of temper into a taunt and serious situation capable of military action through sanctions, UN Security Council resolutions, and threats to board outbound North Korean vessels on international waters. Hyper nationalist North Korea never shies away from threats; as a response to sanctions, threats, and taunting by Citizen Clinton's own wife US secretary Hillary Clinton, herself a hardliner up and down the line on North Korea, Mr. Kim reactivated the quiescent nuclear programme, exploded a powerful non nuclear underground bomb, launched medium and short range rockets, and tore up the 1953 Armistice agreement turning the Korean War into a potentially hot war again.
On top of this, North Korean courts tried two US journalists who knowingly violated DPRK territory without proper documentation, and who tried to flee when caught, thereby adding another layer of tension between Pyongyang and Washington. At the same time, the arrest of Lin and Lee opened a way to reestablish talking points with Washington. And so, by way of background, we see Citizen Clinton on his mission of mercy to Pyongyang. There he hopes Kim Jong il will allow him to accompany the two reporters home as a sign of his country's good will. Maybe yes, maybe no. Chances are Mr. Kim will seize the opportunity to unfreeze Washington's ice age diplomacy, the more especially since he recently called for direct discussions with the US.
Guam Diary is not the only one to scratch its head over America's penchant for making a bad situation worse or to turn an opportunity into a crisis. BOH took a hizzy fit when in fair warning Pyongyang gave advanced warning that it was going to launch a satellite on a long range rocket. BOH counselled delay; Pyongyang proceed with its plans. Then BOH & co. seized the UN Security Council for sanctions against the DPRK on shaky juridical grounds. And thus the ball of string began unraveling. Such a prescription by the US made little sense in respecting the practices of good diplomacy. It stifled at one fell swoop any chance for valuable conversation; it quashed any initiatives to work out issues on the table at the six party talks in Beijing. The DPRK has abandoned these talks. By this fiat, Pyongyang has knocked the pins out Washington's strategy to used China as a surrogate to wring concession from North Korea, and at the same time, it shows the hollowness of BOH's alignment with the rigid, renewed Cold War strategy towards the DPRK of South Korea and Japan.
As the saying goes, you don't send a boy to do a man's job. The US for many reasons has been loath under Bush's 8 years in office to talk directly with the DPRK. It was willing and BOH, too, adopting the Bush strategy with his hard line secretary of state Mme. Clinton, to out do Bush in mindless stubbornness, to talk to Pyongyang on the sidelines without nary a breakthrough. In brief, the US has to do its own 'dirty work', straw men won't do. The DPRK called BOH's bluff. So seeking Mr. Kim's clemency in releasing two journalist, it is hoped that a new chapter will begin in talks between the DPRK and the US.
American critics will cry 'sellout', but it is the chronic illness of US policy to pay the pound of cure rather than take the ounce of prevention in the beginning.
It is time that Washington end the Korean War once and for all, and expand useful policies which will avoid the endemic pratfalls and errors that it so loves to commit in the conduct of its foreign policy. It's time American diplomats act as diplomats and not like warriors.
Rockets glare o'er Kabul
Rockets, the BBC reports, within a mile of the US embassy in Kabul. Incidents of attacks against NATO, and especially beefed up American troops' strength, are on the increase So are the casualities,mostly from IED's. The Taliban are upping the ante They have called for a boycott of the forthcoming elections, and are therefore increasing in number and sophisticated materiel; they're are aiming to disrupt any strategem to weaken or defeat them militarily or outwit them politically. Guam Diary won't rule out that the Taliban will try a do or die offensive against Kabul in the hours leading up to national elections. They will fail where the Vietnamese succeed during the 1968 Tet offensive.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Obama's birth certificate
Love and war, all's fair, the old saw says. The weapons of choice are many and varied. Consider the latest brouhaha over Barack Hussein Obama's birth certificate. Among the right wing fringe, a belief subsists since the US president began running for the highest office of the 'home of the free, land of the brave'. Take his middle name, it's foreign and Arab. His father was a non believing Muslim. Ergo, Mr. Obama is a muslim, not only a closeted muslim but he is somehow affiliated to terrorism. Think Al Qaeda, the Taliban, Bokum Haram, Al Shabbab, Islamic Jamiayah, and the list is long. In spite of evidence that the US president is a practising, confirmed Christian, the disbelievers won't recognise the truth. And on top of this, now surfaces the issue of his birth right. He ain't born in America. He's not a Yankee, and by fraud, he's subverted the American constitution which simply and clairly states that only an born American can become president.
What makes this absurdity of interest, it is held by a goodly number of Republicans...58 per cent is the quoted figure. They like all Americans have lived through harrowing times. Think 9/11 and then the worst economic recession almost turning into another Great Depression of the 1930's. Such moments of crisis have turned the US in on itself, and like a tongue searching a rotting tooth,the US relives an age of intolerance and nativism, whereby the foreign or the exotic is not only not one of us, but dangerous and threatening, and what's more if the foreign doesn't look like the magazine model of a typical American, our way of live is threaten with destruction. It doesn't matter that Mr. Obama was born on American soil, in Honolulu, Hawaii. It's a lie, they believe. He really, some say, was born in his father's Kenya. Besides believing in the number of angels dancing on the head of political absurdity, it is the right wing Republican talking heads who are trying to throw rivers of water on this spreading forest fire of the Big Lie. Ann Coulter for one, Fox's Bill O'Reilly for another. They, it seems, have an inkling that such a lie can further distance the party from Main Street, if not from sanity and commonsense. What is more amazing is that joining the big mouths pushing the issue of Mr. Obama's birthright and place, is that populist, anti elitist, with a Harvard degree, the gasbag Lou Dobbs. We know from where Dobbs is coming from...look at his campaign against illegal immigrats. For all his spit and polish the birth issue is pushing Mr. Dobbs to the head of the no nothing class. But Mr. Dobbs works for CNN which is doing very little to stop his mischief and mayhem. Why? It means ratings; it's making money for the them and sponsors. It is an false claim which CNN hopes will help claw its way back to elbow out Fox and MSNBC of the race for the top dog of mindless cable television and vacuous opinion making. Yes, CNN is falling behind, and that means loss of money and influence.
Dobbs & co. are symptomatic of the chronic illness affecting the US media. They go for the jugular in trivia and gossip and innuendo. It is Grub Street or yellow journalism or mud slinging journalism, all over again.
Of course the land of birth of Mr. Obama has racial overtones. It is also a signpost that these men and women with a 19 century mentality are out of step with what's happening in the US and the world. Alas, they and the big money behind them, pull the strings, as the inflammatory rhetoric of their burn down the barn they've sought refuge in. They intend to do much harm. And they've an army of faithful who will answer their noxious call. And blindly they will sally forth into the valley of their own destruction.
What makes this absurdity of interest, it is held by a goodly number of Republicans...58 per cent is the quoted figure. They like all Americans have lived through harrowing times. Think 9/11 and then the worst economic recession almost turning into another Great Depression of the 1930's. Such moments of crisis have turned the US in on itself, and like a tongue searching a rotting tooth,the US relives an age of intolerance and nativism, whereby the foreign or the exotic is not only not one of us, but dangerous and threatening, and what's more if the foreign doesn't look like the magazine model of a typical American, our way of live is threaten with destruction. It doesn't matter that Mr. Obama was born on American soil, in Honolulu, Hawaii. It's a lie, they believe. He really, some say, was born in his father's Kenya. Besides believing in the number of angels dancing on the head of political absurdity, it is the right wing Republican talking heads who are trying to throw rivers of water on this spreading forest fire of the Big Lie. Ann Coulter for one, Fox's Bill O'Reilly for another. They, it seems, have an inkling that such a lie can further distance the party from Main Street, if not from sanity and commonsense. What is more amazing is that joining the big mouths pushing the issue of Mr. Obama's birthright and place, is that populist, anti elitist, with a Harvard degree, the gasbag Lou Dobbs. We know from where Dobbs is coming from...look at his campaign against illegal immigrats. For all his spit and polish the birth issue is pushing Mr. Dobbs to the head of the no nothing class. But Mr. Dobbs works for CNN which is doing very little to stop his mischief and mayhem. Why? It means ratings; it's making money for the them and sponsors. It is an false claim which CNN hopes will help claw its way back to elbow out Fox and MSNBC of the race for the top dog of mindless cable television and vacuous opinion making. Yes, CNN is falling behind, and that means loss of money and influence.
Dobbs & co. are symptomatic of the chronic illness affecting the US media. They go for the jugular in trivia and gossip and innuendo. It is Grub Street or yellow journalism or mud slinging journalism, all over again.
Of course the land of birth of Mr. Obama has racial overtones. It is also a signpost that these men and women with a 19 century mentality are out of step with what's happening in the US and the world. Alas, they and the big money behind them, pull the strings, as the inflammatory rhetoric of their burn down the barn they've sought refuge in. They intend to do much harm. And they've an army of faithful who will answer their noxious call. And blindly they will sally forth into the valley of their own destruction.
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